In this article, Mikiya Sato and Jun-ichi Watanabe predict that in 2019, the Earth will approach four comet D/1819 W1 (Blanpain) trails formed between 1872 and 1882, and one trail of 1946. Since the parent body had not been observed during the above-mentioned period, the activity of these meteor showers is important for estimating the degree of cometary activity for this parent body during this period.
Please be on alert for possible activity near November 23 and December 2 especially. The Phoenicids have in fact already produced activity this year between November 12 to 14, captured by most CAMS networks! The most interesting cases this year appear to be the two following trails. The 1898 trail is predicted to produce a ZHR of about 12. The 1877 trail does not have a prediction but the density is expected to be low. If the activity occurs, the meteors would be distinctively slow, and appear from a much more northerly radiant position, near R.A 15deg, decl. -7deg, which places it just below the ecliptic near Cetus, and well accessible to the northern hemisphere. Unlike most showers, this shower radiant is at its highest point in the south early in the evening.
|trail 1877||2019/11/23.03||Estimated peak time 00:39 UT|
|trail 1898||2019/12/02.90||Estimated peak time 21:29 UT|
Network operators, check your cameras! Observers, please be alert for any activity especially at November 23 and December 2. Even a negative (no meteor) result can be useful.